(Of course, the harder problems do help map out the broader region of mathematical truth within which individual pieces of knowledge are picked for inventions. )- I think outcomes are not good by default - I think outcomes can be made good, but this will require hard work that key actors may not have immediate incentives to do. It's hard to come up with a realistic non-contrived life situation where you know that it's a good time to be irrational and you don't already know the true answer. That’s a good reason to not tie it to your identity — it would allow people to attempt to steal your keys to some of those early blocks and bother you for cash and prevent you from moving on from the project. I don't particularly disbelieve this.- The only key technological threshold I care about is the one where AI, which is to say AI software, becomes capable of strong self-improvement. I recommend reading it, if you haven’t done so.
In particular, they don't emerge when something is sufficiently more powerful than you that it can disassemble you for spare atoms whether you try to press Cooperate or Defect.
AI Visionary Eliezer Yudkowsky on the Singularity, Bayesian Brains and Closet Goblins “Decision theorist” Eliezer Yudkowsky spells out his idiosyncratic vision of the Singularity.
The question is just which of these two worlds is more probable as the one we should avoid.
(Could the FDA decide to make an exception to bureaucratic rules? (A cake that was just lying on the ground? Yudkowski, to me, is calling humility the essential ingredient. I prefer to call it world optimisation.” Otherwise, the reviewer might dismiss it thinking the original Although you could say number of years unresolved is some statistical information about the original problem’s difficulty, I think we are still pretty heavily biased towards answering questions that are hard for other researchers (rather than things that tell us more about the mathematical world).For your question of why didn’t TCS invent bitcoin and quantum computers, I feel like this is some kind of exploration vs exploitation problem. I'm aware that in trying to convince people of that, I'm swimming uphill against a sense of eternal normality - the sense that this transient and temporary civilization of ours that has existed for only a few decades, that this species of ours that has existed for only an eyeblink of evolutionary and geological time, is all that makes sense and shall surely last forever. Eliminate obstacles to housing construction. Indeed, this phase is often what leads to But let me step back from these quibbles, to address something more interesting: what can I, personally, take from Now for a still more pointed question: am I, personally, too conformist or status-conscious? If you obtain a well-calibrated posterior belief that some proposition is 99% probable, whether that proposition is milk being available at the supermarket or global warming being anthropogenic, then you must have processed some combination of sufficiently good priors and sufficiently strong evidence. It took a century after the first cars before we could even begin to put a robotic exoskeleton on a horse, and a real car would still be faster than that.- I don't expect the first strong AIs to be based on algorithms discovered by way of neuroscience any more than the first airplanes looked like birds.- I don't think that nano-info-bio "convergence" is probable, inevitable, well-defined, or desirable.- I think the changes between 1930 and 1970 were bigger than the changes between 1970 and 2010.- I buy that productivity is currently stagnating in developed countries.- I think extrapolating a Moore's Law graph of technological progress past the point where you say it predicts smarter-than-human AI is just plain weird. Human intelligence is privileged mainly by being the least possible level of intelligence that suffices to construct a computer; if it were possible to construct a computer with less intelligence, we'd be having this conversation at that level of intelligence instead.But this is not a simple debate and for a detailed consideration I'd point people at an old informal paper of mine, "Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics", which is unfortunately probably still the best source out there.
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